5 Fraud Signals You’re Probably Ignoring in Your Shopify Analytics
Fraud isn’t always obvious at checkout. These hidden signals in your analytics can reveal fraud attempts before they turn into chargebacks.
Why Fraud Hides in Your Analytics
Most Shopify merchants keep an eye on sales, conversion rates, and ad performance. But buried inside your analytics are subtle signals that fraudsters leave behind. If you know what to look for, you can catch fraud earlier and stop chargebacks before they hit your bottom line.
Here are 5 fraud signals worth tracking in your Shopify analytics.
1. Multiple Failed Payment Attempts Per Session
Fraudsters often test stolen cards in rapid succession. You might see 5 to 10 "initiated checkouts" but only one successful payment. This pattern usually shows up in your Shopify checkout funnel or by comparing GA4 events like begin_checkout against purchase.
2. Abnormal Order Value Distribution
Real customers usually cluster around your average order value. Fraudsters either buy the cheapest item to test a card or target only your highest-ticket products. You can spot this by looking at revenue distribution reports and watching for sudden spikes at the extreme low or high ends.
3. High Refund or Cancel Rate Tied to Certain Traffic Sources
An ad campaign might drive clicks and add-to-carts, but if those sessions lead to refunded or disputed orders, you are dealing with more than just poor traffic quality. Segmenting refunds and chargebacks by UTM source or medium often reveals which campaigns are sending fraudulent traffic.
4. Mismatch Between Billing and Shipping Locations
A classic fraud signal is when the billing address is in one country and the shipping address is in another. Real customers are less likely to do this unless they are gifting or traveling. You can check for this by exporting orders from Shopify and comparing billing versus shipping addresses.
5. Unusual Payment Method Concentration
If you normally see a healthy mix of payment methods, but suddenly 90% of failed checkouts involve the same processor, fraudsters may be targeting a weak spot. Reviewing your Shopify Payments dashboard or GA4 events broken down by payment type can reveal these anomalies.
Closing Thoughts
Fraud does not always look like a stolen credit card at checkout. It can hide in subtle patterns across your analytics: failed payments, mismatched addresses, or abnormal order values. By learning to spot these signals, you can protect your store before the chargebacks arrive.
Fraud Guard helps Shopify merchants automate this process. Instead of digging through spreadsheets and funnels, our app surfaces these red flags and blocks high-risk visitors before they ever complete a checkout.
